Happy Primary Day. My guess is the only people happier than me that the primary will be over tonight are the candidates.
This has been a challenging few months as many TIS readers developed strong loyalties to their candidate of choice. At times I was told I was being too hard on one candidate, and then a few days later I would be asked if that same candidate had promised me a job in their administration or was paying me to be positive about them. I was pro-Steen, then I was anti-Steen. I was pro-Sherman, then I was anti-Sherman. I was even accused of being pro-Feenstra on some posts.
Yeah, let that sink in…
So, rather than some piece about why I’m right and you’re wrong or why I’m voting for Jim and you should too — how about we just tackle five things to look for tonight.
And let’s start with overall turnout. One of the biggest questions is are Republicans enthusiastic? A decade of full GOP control. A, by all accounts, lackluster campaign by the frontrunner for governor.
Are we excited?
Well, we’ll see. Although most political insiders have told me they believe a bigger turnout favors Randy Feenstra because that means the more casual primary voter showed up and not just those who are really paying attention.
A lower turnout, then, helps the not Randys in the race, by that logic.
Which candidate emerged as the Anti-Feenstra candidate? This was the challenge all along. Someone had to make it a two-person race somehow. In retrospect, I think the “Not Randys” spent too much time going after each other and not enough time focused on the frontrunner.
Of course, that is easy to do when the frontrunner never shows up at debates and you’re trying to differntiate yourself from those who are showing up.
The only way an upset of epic proportions happens tonight is if a “Not Randy” did enough to somehow garner more than 40 percent of the vote.
Will Feenstra garner 50 percent? I’d argue it’s possible, perhaps even likely, following President Trump’s endorsement. If Feenstra eclipses 50 percent, then the fact that the other four all stayed in the race is irrelevant. However, if Feenstra doesn’t quite get to 50 percent, and he might now, will the other four be criticized for failing to coalesce around one option?
Are any of the incumbent Republicans in the legislature going to lose a primary? There are plenty being challenged. And many are moderates or well-established legislators who have angered the conservative base. If all the moderates win and return to Des Moines in January, that isn’t good for conservatives. If all the moderates win and return to Des Moines with a Democrat governor, it’s even worse.
Is Donald Trump going to remain perfect as far as endorsements for this cycle? Trump’s decision to endorse Feenstra on Friday really altered the trajectory of the race. It potentially salvaged the nomination for Feenstra.
But there is an outside chance it came too late. Honestly, Trump’s endorsement of Feenstra is the biggest risk he’s taken inside Iowa — though none of his endorsements prior to this have carried much, if any, risk at all.
So, I will offer some final predictions. Keep in mind this is what I think will happen, not necessarily what I want to happen. And of course, I’m open to being wrong…
I think Feenstra wins the race with more than 40 percent of the vote. I don’t think he gets higher than 55 percent. Perhaps he eclipses that 50 percent mark. But I don’t think he is lower than 42 percent.
I think one — only one — of the “Not Randys” will finish north of 20 percent.
I think one Republican incumbent will lose a primary in each of the two chambers.
That’s what I think. In a few hours, we’ll find out how wrong I am. Be sure to tune in to our special Facebook Live tonight as we discuss the results!
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