AMES, Iowa — It’s a fact that gathering in large crowds increases the spread of the coronavirus. New research from Iowa State University backs that up with a model that predicts where the virus is most likely to spread.
“It’s more important to really curb these random public encounters — going to the bank, going to the grocery store, meeting random strangers — than it is to stop meeting your friends that you see on a daily or somewhat daily basis,” said Claus Kadelka, an assistant professor in Iowa State University’s mathematics department.
The researchers look at different social networks and study how homophily — the tendency to associate with people who share the same opinions and beliefs, in this case about COVID-19 — affects the probability of an outbreak and the number of deaths.
For example, if a person believes social distancing is effective, they are more likely to be friends with people who also believe social distancing is effective, therefore curbing the spread of the virus.
The research also finds that elderly people already have smaller social networks and are not as likely to contribute to the spread of COVID-19 as those under the age of 50. They say more research needs to be done, but it might recommend vaccinating younger people first instead of the elderly.
“If there is substantially more reduction, then it may make sense to focus on the [younger] people. If all of them reduce the same, which I highly doubt, then you should still should follow the American approach and then vaccinate the high-risk people first,” Kadelka said.
The researchers hope their findings will help policymakers with virus mitigation and vaccination strategies.