Grinnell College’s statistics concentration has grown from just two graduates in 2016 to 51 in 2025. Now, the Statistics Department is working toward turning that growing interest into a full major as early as fall 2027.
The department has discussed creating a statistics major for several years, according to Professor Collin Nolte. He said the idea developed collaboratively within the department, but limited faculty capacity previously made a major difficult to sustain.
“For the longest time, the Statistics Department was maybe two or three people,” Nolte said. In the past, the department had enough capacity to only teach introductory statistics and a small number of additional courses. More recent faculty hiring and rising enrollment, however, have made expanding the program more feasible.
Professor Jonathan Wells said the department now has six tenure-track statisticians, including a new faculty member who joined this fall. According to Wells, having a larger faculty gives the department both the teaching capacity and the time necessary to develop a major.
Wells said the department has also received greater institutional support for the idea than it had in previous years. He pointed to interest from prospective students and the presence of statistics majors at peer institutions as additional reasons for considering the change.
“If potentially some of those students decline to come to Grinnell because we don’t have a major in statistics, that could be an attractive feature if we do have a major,” Wells said.
Belinda Backous of the Registrar’s Office said interest in the concentration has continued to rise since it was introduced in 2015. College data provided by the Registrar’s Office show a sharp increase in the number of students completing the statistics concentration. The number rose from two students in 2016 to 30 in 2023 and 51 in 2025. Forty-four members of the class of 2026 have completed the concentration, with four additional December graduates expected.
Backous also pointed to broader demand for statistics courses, though she cautioned that increased course enrollment does not necessarily translate directly into demand for a major.
Wells said the department surveyed statistics concentrators about three years ago to gauge interest in a potential major. Around 80 percent of approximately 100 concentrators responded, and roughly 70 percent of respondents said they would consider declaring statistics as a major. At the time, however, students had not yet been shown a specific list of requirements.
The department currently has about 130 statistics concentrators. According to Nolte, a major would provide students with a more structured path through statistics than the current concentration. He also said the existing concentration allows students to choose from a broad range of courses across statistics and related fields. A major could instead establish a common foundation before students move into subjects such as advanced modeling, machine learning and data science.
“It gives us a more consistent pathway for students to say, ‘If I want to go from here to wherever I’m going to end up, what’s the most reasonable way to get there?’” Nolte said.
Some changes that could support the proposed major are already appearing in the curriculum. Wells said the department has regularized two courses that were previously taught as special topics — a 300-level advanced regression course and a 300-level advanced machine learning course. He said the department does not currently anticipate discontinuing existing courses, although the number of sections offered for individual classes could change depending on enrollment.
However, under Grinnell’s current academic structure, Wells said, a department does not maintain both a major and a concentration in the same subject. If a statistics major is approved, the concentration would eventually disappear. He also said that could affect students who want substantial training in statistics without making it their primary field of study.
“I think that’s a real trade-off,” Wells said, although he acknowledged that a major could provide clearer advising, stronger sequencing between courses and a greater sense of community among students studying statistics.
A major could also affect registration priorities for upper-level courses. Backous said introductory courses generally prioritize first- and second-year students, while upper-level courses prioritize students who need them to complete their majors. If statistics becomes a major, majoring students would receive the type of priority currently given to concentrators in advanced statistics courses.
Despite the department’s work, the statistics major has not yet formally entered the College’s approval process. Backous said the department has been developing the proposal and seeking feedback, but it has not yet reached the Curriculum Committee.
Once formally submitted, the proposal will move through the Science Division and Curriculum Committee before going to the full faculty for a vote. If approved, the department is aiming to introduce the major in fall 2027.